by ROB JENKINS
Sports Editor

If you are going to Vegas and you plan on betting on some sporting events (or if you have a bookie or use those marginally legal online betting sites), I’m probably not the guy you want to give you advice on who to pick in a moneyline bet.

I’m usually pretty good when it comes to breaking down what it will take for a team to win, but when it comes to picking a score…um…not so much.

Never was this more evident than my prediction last Thursday that Elon would beat Appalachian State 31-30.

As you probably know, Appalachian trounced the Phoenix 27-10 to claim the Southern Conference championship for the fifth straight year.

Well, at least I was close on the Mountaineers’ score!

Picking Elon to win was the correct pick to make with the metric I was using. The problem was my metric was flawed.

I based my prediction almost entirely on statistics.

In hindsight, that was a very poor decision.

Stats should be the basis of any good prediction, but they should not be the only source of information.

What the stats told me last week was that Elon and Appalachian had pretty comparable offensive numbers, so I considered the offenses a push.

The defensive numbers were another story altogether.

Going into the game, Elon had the No. 1 total defense in the FCS and Appalachian only ranked No. 54.

It seemed like a no-brainer: I took Elon because I thought they could slow down the ASU offense and I didn’t know if the Apps could stop Terrell Hudgins and Co.

However, I did not consider what should probably have given me more insight into the outcome of the game than anything else.

Appalachian had been in that type of game before; Elon had not.

Think about all the pressure games ASU has been in recently: Wofford 2008, Elon 2008, Michigan 2007, Furman in the 2005 playoffs, James Madison in the 2007 playoffs, the national championship games from 2005-07, etc, etc, etc.

The only pressure games Elon had played recently were against Appalachian and Liberty last season. The Phoenix lost both of those games.

Last Saturday was the first time Elon played a home game in which they could clinch a SoCon championship: they were in unfamiliar territory and it showed in the way they played.

Elon was a nervous wreck of a team in the first quarter. Scott Riddle looked like a scared freshman, not the SoCon career leader in passing yards that he is.

Riddle’s three first quarter interceptions doomed the Phoenix. Elon outscored Appalachian 10-6 after the first 15:06 of the game, but the damage was already done.

The Mountaineers were cool, calm and collected, scoring touchdowns after each interception.

Appalachian came into the game loose and ready to go. Elon didn’t.

I should have seen it coming, but I didn’t.

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